Top 20 2017 stem cell predictions: score card at 1/2-way point

In December of each year I make a list of stem cell predictions for the coming year, and I made 20 such predictions for 2017 so I’m wondering how I’m doing so far on these now that it’s June. Below is my work-in-progress scorecard for these so far.

  1. Positive news from Asterias on trial for stem cell-based therapy for spinal cord injury. Status: Correct, trial looking encouraging.
  2. Upbeat news from ViaCyte on stem cell-based therapy trial for diabetes. Status: Correct, raising $10M and things looking promising.
  3. More positive news from the old Ocata now under Astellas umbrella on trial use of stem cell-derived RPE for Macular Degeneration. Status: Not Yet.
  4. Good news on the adult stem cell front on trials for one or more major diseases. At least one and probably more positive developments here. Status: Correct, lots of good news. The potential for stem cell generated blood is just one example.
  5. Fake news hits stem cell arena. Stem cell clinics use fake news. For instance, this might be a media mouthpiece for one or more stem cell clinics actively using fake news-like approaches to promote them. Status: Correct, unfortunately.
  6. More clarity on clinics: data. More academic publications on the practices and outcomes of stem cell clinics are published, bringing greater clarity to what is going on with actual data. Status: Not Yet.
  7. More lawsuits against stem cell clinics. There has been a lot of buzz on this behind the scenes already and cases popping up in 2016. This is going to grow in 2017. Status: Not Yet.
  8. Concrete clinic harms. We learn more about additional examples of patient who feel they’ve been harmed by American stem cell clinics including in particular alleged clinic-caused blindness. Status: Not Yet.
  9. Some other federal agency besides the FDA makes news on stem cells. This may not be until 2018, but we’ll see. Status: Not Yet.
  10. At least one FDA guidance is finalized. The FDA finalizes at least one of its four recent stem cell-related guidances, but probably not all four. Status: Not Yet.
  11. More than one warning letter. The FDA issues more than one warning letter to stem cell clinics in this year. Will it still be a drop in the bucket or some kind of decisive action? The FDA may have more difficulty taking action within the Trump context and much will depend on who is the new Commissioner.  Status: None Yet.
  12. Japan IPSC trial starts. Great news as at least one IPSC trial begins in Japan. Maybe two. Status: Correct.
  13. Cures yields regen med IND. The FDA takes at least one accelerated stem cell-related IND action traceable to the Cures Act related to a promising new stem cell/regenerative medicine therapy. Hopefully no direct to consumer businesses try to tap in. Status: Looking correct based on many RMATs granted.
  14. Athersys, Cytori, and Mesoblast have some ups & downs amongst them. Status: Correct.
  15. Prop 71 2.0. CIRM and/or Prop 71 supporters start more openly talking about a new round of CIRM funding. This may include mention of Trump as problematic for the stem cell field and the continuing need for California to take the lead. . Status: Correct. Will they pull the trigger though this year?
  16. Trump somewhat, but not entirely limits ES cell funding. The Trump administration probably does not outright ban federal funding of embryonic stem cell research, but there may be some effort to limit it in some way such as not supporting generation of new lines perhaps à la Bush.  Status: Not yet.
  17. Fetal tissue research restriction effort. The Trump administration and/or the GOP attempt to restrict human fetal tissue research.  Status: Not yet.
  18. CRISPR of human embryos is blocked or limited in some way in the U.S. (e.g. FDA is not permitted to review applications related to this area as was the case with the rider on spending bill for 2016).  Status: Not yet.
  19. Trump creates something like Bush’s President’s Council on Bioethics. It’s packed with conservatives including someone tied to the Witherspoon Institute. Deja vu all over again.  Status: Not yet.
  20. Florida acts on clinics. The state of Florida takes some action on stem cell clinics, which are out of control there. Things are a mess clinic wise here in California too, but I’m not so sure the state will do anything helpful to deal with it.  Status: Not yet.

Overall, I’m doing OK so far, but much is up in the air for the final 6 months of the year.