Top 20 Stem Cell Predictions for 2017

stem cell crystal ball

Stem cell crystal ball

Each year I make a list of predictions for the stem cell and regenerative medicine field for the coming new year. Later in this post I list my top 20 stem cell predictions for 2017. In looking at my past predictions I realized this will now be my 7th year doing stem cell/regenerative medicine yearly predictions.

You can see below links to these predictions for past years, which sometimes seems rather far removed from today and in other cases strike me as strangely apropos of our times.

What will 2017 bring? Below are my top 20 predictions in no particular order except starting with a few hopeful visions for the coming year.

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Grading my top 20 stem cell predictions for 2016: how’d I do?

Below are the 2016 stem cell predictions I made last year and their status now color-coded near year’s end. Green is right, orange is mixed bag, and red is flat out wrong.

Overall, I did better than most past years with only having entirely blown it on four.

Stay tuned later this week for my 2017 predictions, which looks to be a dramatic year in the field of stem cells and regenerative medicine.

The Score Card on 2016 Predictionsstem-cell-predictions

  1. Another stem cell biotech acquisition by pharma (recall Ocata (now finally sold to Astellas) & CDI in 2015). Grade: Some acquisitions, but not huge news.
  2. Charging patients for clinical trial participation, particularly in Japan due to the new policy and here in the US related to predatory clinics remains a hot topic. Grade:  Correct.
  3. Stem cell clinics and doping in sports flares up more. Grade:  not really the two together.
  4. Organoids continue to excite. Grade:  Correct.
  5. Bioheart and some other small stem cell companies struggle. Grade:  Correct.
  6. Stem cell stocks overall have a bad year. Grade:  Unfortunately, generally correct.
  7. Stem cell clinics ever more aggressively use celeb clients for PR and marketing. Why? It is powerful, effective, and essentially free advertising. Grade:  Correct.
  8. More news on human-animal chimeras. Grade:  Correct.
  9. FDA continues its slow-go approach to action on stem cell clinics/unapproved stem cell products. Grade:  Sadly correct.
  10. Pressure from industry and some academics on FDA to not regulate adipose products as drugs and/or to not enforce some other draft guidances including at the public hearing on the draft guidances. Grade:  Correct.
  11. FDA receives increasing public criticism for “slowness” on approving new stem cell therapies including from beyond the stem cell clinic industry. Grade:  Correct.
  12. One or more lawsuits against a stem cell clinic. Grade:  Correct in a big way. E.g. versus U.S. Stem Cell, Lung Institute, and Stemgenex.
  13. A new stem cell scandal pops up related to publication issues. Grade:  Correct. You just have to go visit Retraction Watch (e.g. the Spain mess), For Better Science, or PubPeer, and then also see the continuing Macchiarini debacle in particular.
  14. Some hiccups on mitochondrial transfer/3-person IVF in the UK or China. Grade:  Correct. Diseased mitochondrial carry-over and mito-nuclear cross-talk issues have popped up and deserve serious attention. Remarkably, nevertheless UK folks are going forward with it in humans anyway.
  15. The trend last year of increasingly blurred lines between legit research entities such as universities and dubious stem cell enterprises continues. This is worrisome. Grade:  Correct. For instance, see Rasko paper.
  16. Stem cell-derived human germ cells stay in the headlines. This has exciting potential for providing new windows into human development and tackling infertility, but also raises thorny issues such as human genetic modification. Grade:  Correct.
  17. ViaCyte has some big news. Grade: Not yet… 
  18. High-profile developments on veterinary use of stem cells. Grade:  Correct. 
  19. Animal cloning, particularly in China, continues to proliferate. Grade:  Correct.
  20. More rumblings on possible human reproductive cloning attempts. Grade:  Some here and there, but not much. See this piece on cloning focusing on 20th Anniversary of Dolly.

Stem cell checkup: how are my 2016 predictions doing half way?

Stem Cell PredictionsEach December I make stem cell predictions for the coming year and I did that for 2016 where I made 20 predictions. At around mid year I do a checkup on how my predictions are doing halfway and that is the purpose of this post.

Below are my predictions that I made in 2015 for stem cells in 2016 and my general sense in green of where they stand. Overall, I’m doing reasonably well, but I kind of wish I wasn’t because so many of these are not positive developments. However, in general I remain very optimistic for the field and expect major positive advances in coming years on a number of fronts using both adult and pluripotent stem cells.

The predictions and status so far.

  1. Another stem cell biotech acquisition by pharma (recall Ocata (now finally sold to Astellas) & CDI in 2015). Checkup: Not yet.
  2. Charging patients for clinical trial participation, particularly in Japan due to the new policy and here in the US related to predatory clinics remains a hot topic. Checkup: Correct.
  3. Stem cell clinics and doping in sports flares up more. Checkup: Clinics yes, doping not yet.
  4. Organoids continue to excite. Checkup: Correct. What a great technology.
  5. Bioheart and some other small stem cell companies struggle. Checkup: Correct so far. The PPSs of small stem cell biotechs have generally not been pushed up this year by investors, but rather the reverse. Note that Bioheart is now called US Stem Cell, Inc. We can all hope that there is a turnaround for small stem cell biotechs in the market in the 2nd half of the year.
  6. Stem cell stocks overall have a bad year. Checkup: Correct so far also sadly. Note, by way of disclosure I do not currently have any direct stem cell stock investments.
  7. Stem cell clinics ever more aggressively use celeb clients for PR and marketing Why? It is powerful, effective, and essentially free advertising. Checkup: Correct.
  8. More news on human-animal chimeras. Checkup: Correct. Another hot topic.
  9. FDA continues its slow-go approach to action on stem cell clinics/unapproved stem cell products. Checkup: Correct.
  10. Pressure from industry and some academics on FDA to not regulate adipose products as drugs and/or to not enforce some other draft guidances including at the upcoming public hearing on the draft guidances. Checkup: Correct. REGROW and other efforts have been unprecedented. Note that the FDA public meeting will now be held in September rather than in April.
  11. FDA receives increasing public criticism for “slowness” on approving new stem cell therapies including from beyond the stem cell clinic industry. Checkup: Correct in a big way. 
  12. One or more lawsuits against a stem cell clinic. Checkup: Correct and several more seem to be brewing. Note that it appears that the part of the suit involving US Stem Cells, Inc. has been settled, while a separate part of the case against other defendants continues.
  13. A new stem cell scandal pops up related to publication issues. Checkup: Correct. You just have to go visit Retraction Watch (e.g. the Spain mess) or PubPeer, and then also see the continuing Macchiarini saga.
  14. Some hiccups on mitochondrial transfer/3-person IVF in the UK or China. Checkup: Correct. Diseased mitochondrial carry-over and mito-nuclear cross-talk issues have popped up and deserve serious attention.
  15. The trend last year of increasingly blurred lines between legit research entities such as universities and dubious stem cell enterprises continues. This is worrisome. Checkup: Correct.
  16. Stem cell-derived human germ cells stay in the headlines. This has exciting potential for providing new windows into human development and tackling infertility, but also raises thorny issues such as human genetic modification. Checkup: Correct.
  17. ViaCyte has some big newsCheckup: Not yet. What a great company.
  18. High-profile developments on veterinary use of stem cells. Checkup: Correct. For instance see this piece in Scientific American. Cool stuff!
  19. Animal cloning, particularly in China, continues to proliferate. Checkup: Correct.
  20. More rumblings on possible human reproductive cloning attempts. Checkup: Not much concretely yet. See this piece on cloning focusing on 20th Anniversary of Dolly.

Stay tuned as near the end of 2016 I will do a final assessment of how I did on my stem cell predictions and then make stem cell predictions for 2017. What are your stem cell predictions?

Stem cell predictions top 20 list for 2016

Stem Cell PredictionsWhat will the new year have in store for stem cells?

2016 promises to have many striking stem cell developments. Below are my top 20 stem cell predictions for what is to come this year in no particular order. Share your stem cell tea leaves in the comments please.

  1. Another stem cell biotech acquisition by pharma (recall Ocata (almost now finally sold) & CDI in 2015).
  2. Charging patients for clinical trial participation, particularly in Japan due to the new policy and here in the US related to predatory clinics, remains a hot topic
  3. Stem cell clinics and doping in sports flares up more
  4. Organoids continue to excite
  5. Bioheart and some other small stem cell companies struggle
  6. Stem cell stocks overall have a bad year
  7. Stem cell clinics ever more aggressively use celeb clients for PR and marketing Why? It is powerful, effective, and essentially free advertising
  8. More news on human-animal chimeras
  9. FDA continues its slow-go approach to action on stem cell clinics/unapproved stem cell products
  10. Pressure from industry and some academics on FDA to not regulate adipose products as drugs and/or to not enforce some other draft guidances including at the upcoming public hearing on the draft guidances
  11. FDA receives increasing public criticism for “slowness” on approving new stem cell therapies including from beyond the stem cell clinic industry
  12. One or more lawsuits against a stem cell clinic
  13. A new stem cell scandal pops up related to publication issues
  14. Some hiccups on mitochondrial transfer/3-person IVF in the UK or China
  15. The trend last year of increasingly blurred lines between legit research entities such as universities and dubious stem cell enterprises continues. This is worrisome.
  16. Stem cell-derived human germ cells stay in the headlines. This has exciting potential for providing new windows into human development and tackling infertility, but also raises thorny issues such as human genetic modification
  17. ViaCyte has some big news
  18. High-profile developments on veterinary use of stem cells
  19. Animal cloning, particularly in China, continues to proliferate
  20. More rumblings on possible human reproductive cloning attempts

Disclaimer: This post is not meant as financial advice. Consult an expert before making financial decisions.

How did my top 20 stem cell predictions for 2015 fare?

stem cell crystal ball

Paul’s Stem cell Crystal Ball

Each year around this time I check up on my past year’s predictions for the stem cell field. For 2015 I made 20 predictions.

You can see past top 10 predictions lists for 2013 and 2014. It’s pretty interesting to look back at where the focus was in past years and what my crystal ball yielded for better or worse.

How did I do for 2015?

Below is my scoring of the 20 predictions and it’s a mixed bag. I always tend to err on the side of optimism in predictions overall so that usually gets me in a bit of trouble on certain predictions. Note that I have used my exact wording on the prediction from last year even though in some cases I might now in hindsight have changed it.

  • FDA ‘breakthrough’ on stem cells. FDA grants an investigational stem cell biological drug therapy the breakthrough status designation.
    • Score: Wrong. This is a major disappointment.
  • Adult & pluripotent stem cell advances both impress. More encouraging publications and news on the clinical and translational fronts for both pluripotent and adult stem cell drug development including MSCs.
    • Score: Right. It’s been a great year for many kinds of stem cell research.
  • Doc training in stem cells. More new academic-related training programs for doctors to be true stem cell and regenerative medicine specialists.
    • Score: Mixed. There have been for-profits selling more training, but I don’t consider it very real. Some “real” training programs are possibly in the works.
  • Big pharma’s big interest in stem cells grows further. Big pharma’s interest in stem cells & regenerative medicine continues to grow including at least one major development that might be takeover of a stem cell biotech or something else. There are some small stem cell biotechs that seem ripe as takeover targets.
    • Score: Right. Think Ocata, CDI, and more.
  • RTT spread. At least one more state (and probably more) pass Right To Try (RTT) laws setting up a collision course between state and federal laws on investigational drugs including stem cell products.
    • Score: Right. I believe more states now have RTT than don’t. What does it mean though practically speaking?
  • Pro sports gets a bit more serious about dubious stem cell “treatments”. A pro sport players association or league acknowledges growing and difficult stem cell issues for players.
    • Score: Wrong. Lots of crazy stuff going on in the stem cell sports medicine and doping worlds, but league action isn’t one of them.
  • More high-profile stem cell paper problems. At least one and probably more major stem cell paper problems pop up and could include retractions.
    • Score: Right. I guess this just continues the trend of the last few years. Here are just the retractions, but there are a lot more messes out there.
  • The UK Parliament OKs 3-parent baby tech. The parliament approves 3-parent/mitochondrial transfer technology, but more steps are required before it is practiced in humans.
    • Score: Right.
  • Stem cell clinic chains Cell Surgical Network and Stem.md continue to grow for at least the first half of 2015 and probably beyond. They operationally challenge recent FDA draft guidances on adipose and minimal manipulation.
    • Score: Right.
  • STAP-related news on the American front. We learn something on the US side of the story of the retracted STAP cell Nature papers.
    • Score: Wrong. Is STAP considered over and resolved for Brigham and Women’s/Harvard or are they still slowly investigating?
  • Muddier stem cell waters. More mixing of “legit” stem cell companies and researchers with the non-compliant side of the tracks.
    • Score: Right. This one is really troubling. The legit and dubious are often doing a stem cell dance together now.
  • More stem cell paper debates and developments on PubPeer. A volatile trend continues with notable twists and turns.
  • IPSC RPE safety. The IPSC-based RPE trial for wet AMD in Japan continues in 2015 without a reported safety hitch.
    • Score: Wrong. Although regulatory reasons were indicated as the key factor, when the clinical study stopped, mutations were also mentioned. It’s not clear how important this mutations might be.
  • A stem cell biotech finds itself in a hairy situation. What a tangle.
    • Score: Right. I was right on this even if the company (Ocata) wasn’t the one I thought would be in a mess.
  • At least one patient is harmed or files suit for a dubious stem cell clinic treatment. This is a sad prediction, but unfortunately I think it is likely.
    • Score: Right.  This happened in Japan.
  • VSEL hell. There will be even more bad news for these Sasquatch of stem cells after the Weissman lab paper that seemed to refute these “very small embryonic-like” stem cells in 2013. What does this mean for NeoStem ($NBS)?
    • Score: Mixed. It’s coming but just not yet in the public domain…
  • Celltex is going for an IND. This is an interesting development.
    •  Score: Mixed. Another one where I think it is coming but not yet openly.
  • GOP on stem cells. Republications make some noise on stem cells or personhood.
    • Score: Right. I’m going to score this right given the Planned Parenthood mess on fetal tissues/cells.
  • FDA back in the game of taking action on dubious stem cell clinics. After a long quiet period in 2014, the FDA takes some action on dubious stem cell clinics.
    • Score: Wrong. What can I say? They mystify me.
  • Stem cell-based organs. The red-hot trend of bioengineering organs and tissues in part using stem cells as a material continues to develop.
    • Score: Right. Can you say “organic”?