Let’s look into a stem cell crystal ball.
We are now one month out from the original publication of the papers.
When we are three or six or twelve months out from their publication will independent labs have succeeded in replicating the method? It’s possible, but it is also perhaps equally likely that that won’t have happened.
What about the papers–will they be corrected and that’s it? Or could they face something as severe as retraction by Nature?
One possible complicated, but not entirely improbable outcome would be a major paradox: the STAP method itself is successfully replicated by independent labs, but at the same time the STAP papers are retracted by Nature itself because of all the errors and alleged misconduct.
In that odd possible scenario the STAP stem cell method lives, but the Nature STAP stem cell papers are basically dead.
What do you predict for the STAP stem cell method, papers, and authors when say January 2015 rolls around, 1 year after publication?
Let us know in the comments.