Every year I do predictions for the stem cell field for the coming year. You can see my full post on my predictions for this year here.
Stay tuned soon for my predictions for 2014.
How’d I do for 2013 with my predications?
Each prediction for this year that I made last year is bolded and my assessment now of how I did for each is in green or red. I did reasonably well for 2013. Sometimes predictions get mixed in with what hopes or thinks would be the best thing to happen not necessarily the most likely.
10. At least two new lawsuits are filed against stem cell businesses, most likely by patients. I think the number is more likely to be 3-4, but let’s see what develops.
RIGHT. There was a lawsuit filed in Japan against a stem cell clinic and some stem cell companies sued each other. Admittedly, I thought we’d see more patient-based lawsuits.
9. No human iPS cell clinical trials start in 2013. More likely to begin in 2014, which will be exciting. I think this is actually good news compared to moving too fast.
WRONG. Dr. Takahashi’s iPS cell-based study for macular degeneration began to enroll patients on Aug. 1.
8. Transdifferentiation makes a major advance.
RIGHT. We saw a number of important papers in this area this year.
7. A controversy emerges related to anti-embryonic stem cell research folks. For example, something pops up related to 2013 Vatican stem cell meeting or pro-life stem cell folks being tied to the for-profit adult stem cell industry.
WRONG. I’m still hearing that there is controversy there, but it sure hasn’t become public. In addition, the Vatican seems just as pro-adult stem cell as ever.
6. Celltex moves part of its business to Mexico or another overseas location. This move may manifest in them routinely shipping patients’ stem cells out of the U.S. to be transplanted by doctors into patients in other countries. A big question is whether any transplants of Celltex stem cells will take place at all in the U.S.
5. A surprising development occurs related to another state stem cell agency other than CIRM.
RIGHT. The Alabama Institute of Medicine (AIM), a state stem cell research agency in one of the reddest states, was born and is funding stem cell research there.
4. Some clinically relevant and meaningful pre-clinical data are published on transplants of human iPS cells that are encouraging for potential future clinical safety or efficacy.
WRONG. I was being too optimistic. Come on folks, let’s publish that stuff.
3. ACT’s clinical trials for multiple forms of macular degeneration continue without any major hiccups. Safety well-established, the focus turns to efficacy looking to 2014. The stock PPS? I won’t hazard a guess.
RIGHT. So far so good.
2. More FDA regulatory actions take place versus unlicensed stem cell companies in 2013 compared to an already increased number in 2012 and also additional indictments filed against stem cell bad actors.
RIGHT. We saw more FDA actions related to stem cells and some interesting legal action including against S.C. Rep Stephen Goldfinch. Still, given the increasing degree of flagrant non-compliance, I think the FDA needs to do far more.
1. The Supreme Court takes a pass on Sherley v. Sebelius, leaving federal funding of human ES cell research firmly in the “legal” category.
RIGHT. Good news!